In recent years, smaller and poorer countries have pushed for the concept of "loss and damage" funding at international climate summits. They have called for wealthy nations, which industrialized earlier and historically emitted more carbon, to shoulder the financial losses incurred by those on the front lines of climate change. However, wealthy nations have generally been reluctant to accept such an idea.
How much responsibility should countries with the largest historical carbon emissions bear? Scientists at Dartmouth College in the United States published a new study on the 12th analyzing the impact of major carbon emitters on the economies of other countries. The results found that the five largest carbon emitters—the United States, China, and China—have collectively caused nearly $6 trillion in global losses. The authors believe this research could serve as a scientific basis for compensation for climate liability losses.
According to the study, published in the journal Climatic Change, rising temperatures could lead to reduced crop, labor, or industrial output, which in turn could affect economic activity. The study assessed each country's greenhouse gas emissions since 1850 and its contribution to climate change, using this to calculate the economic losses caused by each country's carbon emissions to other countries.
According to a study published by the Associated Press, U.S. carbon emissions between 1990 and 2014 caused over $1.9 trillion in damages, with Venezuela, Brazil, Indonesia, and India each experiencing over $100 billion in damages. Besides the U.S., the top five emitters included China ($1.8 trillion), Russia ($1 trillion), India ($0.8 trillion), and Brazil ($0.5 trillion), collectively causing $6 trillion in global damages.
The Independent reported that the ten countries with the highest emissions are the five mentioned above plus Indonesia, Japan, Venezuela, Germany and Canada, and the top ten account for more than two-thirds of the total losses.
The study indicates that tropical countries will typically be most affected, as warming further pushes up temperatures in already hot regions, leading to economic losses. On a per capita basis, the countries most affected by US emissions include desert nations such as the United Arab Emirates, Mauritania, and Saudi Arabia. Over the 25-year period studied (1990-2014), US emissions alone could have reduced per capita GDP (gross domestic product) in these countries by approximately 2%.
While some countries are negatively impacted by climate change, cooler nations may benefit. The study also suggests that US emissions may have boosted GDP per capita in countries like Mongolia, Finland, Russia, and Iceland.
"Do climate liability damages have a scientific basis? The results suggest the answer is yes," said Christopher Callahan, a doctoral student at Dartmouth College and an author of the study.
The authors added that the potential benefits of climate change are highly concentrated in certain countries and do not offset the losses suffered by others. Furthermore, the study only looked at the impact of global warming and did not include other impacts of fossil fuels, such as air pollution.
Source: Environmental Information Center (https://e-info.org.tw/node/234626)
