Post-pandemic economic growth has led to increased electricity consumption in the manufacturing sector. The Ministry of Environment released the latest greenhouse gas emissions data on the 25th, showing that Taiwan's net emissions in 2021 increased by 4.56% compared to the previous year. Scholars analyze that Taiwan's carbon emissions are strongly influenced by the manufacturing sector's economic performance. To achieve the statutory target of a 10% reduction by 2025, emissions will likely need to be reduced by 3% annually over the next two to three years. They also call on the newly appointed Minister of Environment, Hsueh Fu-sheng, to convene a climate expert committee, similar to Germany's, to review carbon reduction measures across various departments.
Greenhouse gas emissions increased by over 4% in 2021 as tech companies returned to the market after the pandemic.
The Ministry of Environment released the latest emissions data on the 25th, showing that Taiwan's net emissions in 2021 were 275.2 million tons (CO2 equivalent), a 4.56% increase compared to 2020 (263.17 million tons). Energy remained the largest sector, accounting for 90% of emissions. Carbon emissions from the energy, industrial processes and product use, and waste sectors increased by 3.7%, 11.9%, and 2.91%, respectively, while the agricultural sector decreased by 3.4%.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) announced in a press release on the 25th that post-pandemic investment from businesses in 2021 contributed to an 11-year high of 6.53% in economic growth, leading to a 4.4% increase in electricity consumption. Of this total increase of approximately 12 billion kWh, the manufacturing sector alone accounted for 10.7 billion kWh.
The Climate Agency predicts a downward revision of emissions will soon follow. A press release from the Climate Agency noted that China's fuel carbon emissions in 2022 had already declined significantly, and emissions per unit of GDP (carbon intensity) had also been decreasing year by year, "demonstrating the success of China's recent efforts to promote a low-carbon transition." The Climate Agency estimates that China's net emissions in 2022 will decrease by 3.3%, returning to 2020 levels.
Since 2015, Taiwan has published its annual "National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Report," calculated and published using the methods of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Historical data shows that Taiwan's net greenhouse gas emissions peaked in 2007 at 279.6 million tons, and have fluctuated between 262 and 277 million tons annually since then.
Scholars urge the Ministry of Environment to review industrial emissions reductions and convene a climate committee
Chia-Wei Chia, director of the Taiwan Climate Action Network Research Center, analyzed that as much as 88% of the increase in carbon emissions in 2021 came from industrial energy consumption and process emissions. The government's forecast of a decrease in carbon emissions in 2022 is also based on the economic downturn in heavy industry and slowing growth in the electronics industry. "Our carbon emissions have always been driven by the economic cycle of industrial production."
Zhao Jiawei also criticized the Climate Agency's emphasis on carbon emission intensity as outdated, saying, "In the net-zero era, total emissions will still determine the extent of global warming." The Climate Agency estimates that emissions will only be reduced by about 2% by 2022 compared to the base year (2005). This means that to meet Taiwan's second-phase greenhouse gas control target of a "10% reduction by 2025 compared to the base year," emissions must be reduced by at least 3% over the next two to three years.
Germany's Climate Change Expert Committee recently called on government departments to strengthen their policies in order to achieve the 2030 emission reduction target. Zhao Jiawei also urged the first Minister of Environment, Xue Fusheng, to follow Germany's example and convene a "Climate Change Expert Committee" to review the emission reduction practices of Taiwan's six major sectors based on scientific evidence to determine whether they are truly sufficient to meet the 2025 emission reduction target.
Zhao Jiawei said that last year, people were eager to replace old home appliances, and the electrification of vehicles also increased rapidly. However, in the manufacturing sector, which contributes a lot to carbon emissions, the government has not introduced any positive policies, whether it is industrial energy conservation, the use of renewable energy, energy efficiency or the elimination of coal-fired boilers.
Reference: 2023 National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Report (statistics up to 2021)
Source: Environmental Information Center
