Data from Wood Mackenzie indicates that global photovoltaic installations will grow at an average annual rate of 28% between 2019 and 2023, with a sharp increase of 56% between 2022 and 2023. However, no growth is expected from 2024 to 2028. While global solar capacity will continue to grow rapidly over the next decade, the pace of installation growth will begin to slow in 2024 compared to recent years. Wood Mackenzie estimates that global solar capacity will be newly installed at 270 GW this year, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects 349 GW in 2023.
However, the global solar market's growth follows a classic S-curve. The steepest part of the curve has seen rapid growth in recent years, beginning in 2024. The industry will then pass a turning point, characterized by a slowdown in growth. While the global solar market remains many times larger than it was a few years ago, this growth path is natural as the industry matures. Currently, not all regions are at the same point on the S-curve. For example, Africa and the Middle East still have a long way to go before reaching their growth turning points. Furthermore, the Asia-Pacific region, led by China, and Europe are driving this growth pattern globally. It's important to note that any changes in China will have a significant impact on the global market, as the country leads in new installed capacity, with approximately 180 GW expected to be installed this year.
The main factor potentially influencing the slowdown in growth is the global commitment to energy transition. The COP28 meeting reached a declaration hailed as "historic," setting for the first time a goal to transition away from fossil fuels. This goal has transformed the global energy system. Oil, natural gas, and coal consumption continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace, and is expected to peak in 2023. Furthermore, COP28 agreed to triple the amount of renewable energy by 2030.
Global coal demand is projected to grow by 1.4% in 2023, exceeding 8.5 billion tons for the first time. While consumption in the EU and US is projected to grow by around 20%, and in India and China by 8% and 5%, respectively, global coal consumption growth is projected to decline by 2.3% by 2026 compared to 2023 levels.
Source: PV magazine
