Urban sprawl is out of control! Research: By 2030, it will replace vast tracts of farmland. The demand for locally produced food is increasing, not just organic; however, according to the latest research, it may be difficult to "eat locally" in the future! Threatening food security are not only climate change and population growth, but urban sprawl is also making the situation more difficult for farmers. A new study published in the *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* uses overlay analysis to find that the area of global metropolitan areas will triple by 2030, and the land being encroached upon is precisely the more fertile farmland, estimated to cause 3% to 4% of global agricultural losses, with rice being the most severely affected, resulting in a 9% reduction in global production. Large-scale urban sprawl into farmland will also impact agricultural productivity. According to the latest research, urban sprawl will cause 3% to 4% of global agricultural losses. While this number may not seem large, the changes are staggering when considering specific regions and crops, especially in Africa and Asia, where the estimated agricultural losses account for 80% of the global total. By overlaying data on farmland location, productivity, and urban sprawl projections for 2030, researchers can see the farmland that future urban sprawl will encroach upon. Egypt, Nigeria, countries around Lake Victoria in East Africa, and eastern China are among the hotspots for crop damage (China alone accounts for a quarter of global crop damage estimates). The study points out that 60% of global farmland is located in suburban areas, and these suburban farmlands are, on average, twice as productive as other farmlands. Lead author Felix Creutzig, a scholar at the Mercator Institute for Global Community and Climate Change in Berlin, says this is because people tend to live near fertile land, but they haven't anticipated the severe consequences. The disappearance of fertile farmland will impact food crops such as maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat, which are the cornerstones of food security. Urban expansion in Nigeria will reduce rice production by 17% and maize production by 12%; in Egypt, rice production will decrease by 40% and maize production by over 60%. Wheat production on the African continent will decrease by 26%. Rice will be the most severely affected, with a 9% global production reduction, mainly occurring in rice-producing Asia. Krutziger argues that agricultural expansion and intensification can partially offset the agricultural losses caused by urban sprawl, but this isn't true everywhere—many regions are already unable to adapt to urban expansion. For example, farmland in South Asia can no longer expand because fertile land has been exhausted. In India, agricultural expansion will erode ecologically vital lands such as wetlands. In North Africa, climate change is making land unsuitable for cultivation. This will impact food security. Countries experiencing greater urban sprawl are more reliant on imports and more vulnerable to fluctuations in global food supply, with food prices potentially rising to unaffordable levels for the poor. Krutziger emphasizes that urban sprawl will also affect agricultural productivity in other ways, such as displacing millions of smallholder farmers. These smallholder farmers are the mainstay of food production in developing countries and the foundation of food security. "When suburban farmland is converted into urban areas, smallholder farmers will lose their land. Emerging megacities will increasingly rely on industrialized agriculture and supermarket supply chains, crowding out local food supply chains." Faced with the changing food map, Krutziger believes that farming on the outskirts of cities—urban agriculture—may be a solution. "Urban agriculture certainly can't feed the entire urban population, but it can sustain local supply chains and provide livelihoods for small urban farmers." However, controlling urban sprawl as much as possible remains a more effective approach, says Krutziger. Source: Environmental Information Centre (2016-12-30)
