A recent study by Greenpeace, titled "Climate Tipping Point: The Potential Impact of Fossil Fuel Development on the Target of Limiting Global Warming to 2°C," indicates that if 14 new large-scale coal, oil, and gas mining projects in countries such as China, Australia, the United States, Indonesia, and Brazil are developed and implemented, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will increase by 20% in 2020 compared to 2011. This confirms a rapid upward trend in global emissions, making the target of limiting global warming to within 2 degrees Celsius seem unlikely, and potentially even pushing the world into a catastrophic warming trajectory of 5-6°C.
Greenpeace calls for action: humanity's ability to break free from dependence on fossil fuels will determine the success or failure of the global response to climate change. Governments and businesses worldwide should take immediate action to halt the expansion of fossil fuel consumption, actively promote a sustainable, low-carbon "energy revolution," and use renewable energy and improved energy efficiency to meet new energy demands, thus preventing global climate change from crossing an irreversible tipping point.
"These 14 fossil fuel development projects are a manifestation of the global economy's addiction to fossil fuels," said Kumi Naidu, Greenpeace International Director General. "Once these projects are completed, they will become the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions to date, pushing greenhouse gas emissions to new heights. If no immediate action is taken to stop them, crossing the tipping point will have a fatal impact on human society."
This study, a collaboration between Greenpeace and the think tank Ecofys, analyzes and predicts the potential climate change effects of 14 new large-scale coal, oil, and gas mining projects worldwide, including the construction of coal-fired power bases in western China. According to the study, these projects, planned between 2012 and 2050, will extract and produce 49.6 billion tons of coal, 29.4 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, and 260 billion barrels of oil. Burning these fossil fuels is equivalent to emitting a cumulative 300 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere. If all these projects are implemented, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will increase by 20% by 2020 compared to 2011, pushing global climate change past an irreversible tipping point and into a catastrophic warming trajectory of 5-6°C.
The 14 fossil fuel projects are: expansion of coal-fired power bases in western China; large-scale expansion of coal mining and exports in Australia, the United States, and Indonesia; oil sands development in Canada and Venezuela; Arctic oil development; offshore oil development off the coast of Brazil; high-risk, unconventional oil development activities in Iraq, the Gulf of Mexico, and Kazakhstan; shale gas development in the United States; and natural gas development projects in Africa and the Caspian Sea. Of these, the expansion of coal-fired power bases in western China is projected to generate 1.4 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions by 2020, the expansion of coal mining and exports in Australia is projected to generate 760 million tons, and oil and gas development in the Arctic is projected to generate 520 million tons, making these the three largest emitters among the 14 projects.
The study also points out that increasingly frequent extreme weather events globally are one of the consequences of climate change. If global warming exceeds 3°C, 30% of global species will be at risk of extinction. Above 4°C, climate change is likely irreversible, and much of the Earth will become uninhabitable. Taking China as an example, due to climate change, China will face the following significant risks: impacted food production, water resource crises, and more frequent extreme weather events such as droughts, torrential rains, and typhoons.
"With the global average temperature rising by only 0.8°C, the increase in extreme weather events caused by climate change has already led to frequent tragedies and devastating costs. Since governments agreed on the 2°C target at the 2009 Copenhagen Conference, they should take action to achieve it," pointed out Deng Ping, Director of Climate and Energy at Greenpeace. "If all 14 mining projects are implemented, it could completely close our hopes of limiting warming to within 2°C. Decision-makers still have the opportunity and the ability to make the right choice."
Sources: Greenpeace (2013-01-24)
