The next two UN climate talks will be held in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: COP27 in Egypt in November, and COP28 in the United Arab Emirates in 2023. Climate change has only recently become a mainstream issue in the MENA region, where political security, the oil and gas economy, and religious tensions have historically dominated local news.
Over the past few years, countries in the Middle East and North Africa have experienced unprecedented extreme weather events, including heatwaves and floods, making it impossible to ignore the current dire situation. Climate forecasts indicate that these phenomena will continue to intensify. Environmental change will increasingly intertwine with political and economic dynamics, impacting the region's people, trading partners, and investors. As Egypt, the new rotating presidency of the COP, has emphasized the importance of climate adaptation, we need to consider what climate adaptation measures are needed in the Middle East and North Africa and how international cooperation can help mitigate the region's multiple risks.
A unique risk area
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region boasts a complex and diverse landscape, ranging from the sometimes snow-capped pine forests of Morocco's Atlas Mountains to the lush, monsoon-fed vegetation of Dhofar in southern Oman. Yet, collectively, MENA is the most water-scarce of any major region in the world. Over the past 50 years, oil revenues and foreign aid have fueled rapid population growth, urban expansion, and increased food imports. The region's countries possess significant wealth but lack political accountability, often overlooking environmental fragility. Unsustainable water use, hydroelectric dam construction, and uncontrolled urban expansion have generated some prosperity but undermined long-term resilience.
Today, severe resource depletion coupled with climate change are exacerbating the risks. Perhaps surprisingly, flooding has become one of the most frequent environmental hazards in the Middle East and North Africa. From Sana'a in Yemen to Jeddah in Saudi Arabia and Shiraz in Iran, increasingly frequent heavy rainfall is causing significant loss of life and property in ill-prepared towns and cities. And such incidents are only expected to increase.
As the world warms, low-lying, densely populated coastal areas of North Africa and the Persian Gulf are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels. Due to these regions' geography and susceptibility to storm surges, even small increases in sea level can have significant impacts. The Egyptian city of Alexandria is particularly at risk because the densely populated city is sinking.
Agriculture in the Middle East and North Africa is suffering from fragmented governance. Low fuel prices and unregulated groundwater extraction have allowed agricultural companies with unsustainable irrigation and land use practices to dominate agricultural development. The World Bank estimates that approximately 45% of agricultural land in the region is affected by salinization, loss of fertility, and soil degradation.
Over the past decade, drought-induced livelihood losses in Iraq and Syria have forced hundreds of thousands of rural families to migrate to cities, increasing pressure on municipal services and making some small farmers potential recruits for extremist groups.
Source: Environmental Information Center (https://e-info.org.tw/node/234946)
