Assessing climate risks is an urgent and challenging task that requires an understanding of many areas, such as the complex interactions between global climate systems and the responses of natural ecosystems, the potential impacts of current emissions reduction measures, and the interplay of political, social, and economic factors, including forced migration, dramatic shifts in global food production, rising violence, and government failures.
The report, titled "Climate Change: A Danger Assessment" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), was released today (July 13, 2015). It provides an authoritative analysis of the aforementioned issues. Its authors include Sir David King of the United Kingdom, Professor Daniel Schrag of the United States, Professors Zhou Dadi and Qi Ye of China, and Dr. Arunabha Ghosh of India. They urge governments to pay close attention to climate change and to conduct timely assessments.
Last week in Delhi, India, Dr. Ghosh pointed out that scientists, actuaries, military officers, and policy analysts have different definitions of risk. Scientists are cautious about predicting future climate impacts. Actuaries and military officers, on the other hand, need to plan for the worst-case scenario, so they are more concerned with extreme situations. Dr. Ghosh stated that this report not only considers the worst-case scenario but also uses data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on high-emission trajectories. The potential impacts revealed by these extreme scenarios are alarming.
On the basis of economic development with high carbon emissions, rising temperatures will be inevitable. Its impact on people's lives could evolve from inconvenience to intolerance. Even with emissions reduced to a minimum, temperatures will still rise by more than 2 degrees Celsius by the second half of this century; moderate emissions will lead to a temperature rise of more than 4 degrees Celsius by 2150; and if high-emission practices continue unchecked, even if the temperature rise does not reach 7 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, it is highly likely to occur in the next century.
The report's authors outlined potential impacts on humans and the environment from the perspectives of large-scale migration and natural disasters. Taking India as an example, extreme heat during the flowering season will cause widespread plant die-offs, resulting in a $200 billion loss in wheat production in Punjab alone. Summer temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius will also become more frequent, leading to a continuous rise in heatstroke deaths. This year alone, at least 2,000 people have died from heat waves in India and Pakistan.
Climate change will also exacerbate the risk of flooding in the Ganges and Indus River basins, and China's Yellow River basin will face similar challenges. The report states that if current high-emission practices continue, the frequency of floods that previously occurred once every 30 years in the Yellow and Indus River basins will at least triple this century, while the risk in the Ganges River basin will increase fivefold.
China also faces significant risks. The report's authors believe that the impact of climate change on global food production will become increasingly apparent. Taking the global grain market as an example, data shows that China is becoming increasingly reliant on food imports. According to China's Ministry of Finance, in 2013, half of China's grains, soybeans, and meat were imported. Chinese agriculture will also face the challenges of extreme weather events; for instance, extreme heat in southern China could reduce rice production by at least 40%.
Zheng Guoguang, director of the China Meteorological Administration, pointed out that the annual losses suffered by China due to meteorological disasters are even equivalent to the annual GDP growth. Among them, direct economic losses such as loss of arable land or fishing boats account for one-third, while the remaining two-thirds are indirect economic losses, such as forced evacuation or interruption of production.
Chinese analysts have recognized that the increasing frequency of heat waves, torrential rains, droughts, and typhoons poses significant threats to agricultural production, urban management, public health, and ecosystems. Some have even argued that compared to developed countries like the United States, China lacks the necessary response capabilities and infrastructure, meaning that it could suffer losses ten times greater in the event of extreme weather.
The complexity and uncertainty of climate change also impact policymaking. The Chinese government must not only address domestic issues caused by climate change but also consider its impact on China's investment and infrastructure cooperation in regional and international arenas. The Chinese government hopes to play a greater role globally. Currently, the Chinese government is undertaking new infrastructure projects with neighboring countries, all of which require taking into account current and future low-carbon development standards and goals.
The report's authors also attempted to identify the potential social and political impacts of climate change. The study shows that Libya, Jordan, Algeria, Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt, and Iraq occupy seven of the world's nine major wheat-importing countries. On a per capita basis, food expenditures account for approximately 35% to 45% of the average household income in these countries. In 2011, all of these countries experienced civilian deaths due to political protests. Also in 2011, food prices soared due to the global food crisis.
The report's authors recommend that relevant governments prioritize climate risk assessment to better understand future trends in global greenhouse gas emissions, the direct risks of climate change caused by emissions, and the risks that climate change poses in complex human and social environments, and to develop corresponding response plans.
While the report aims to provide strategic development guidance for governments worldwide, the risks posed by climate change to the sustainable operation of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Taiwan should not be underestimated. We urge businesses to conduct internal risk assessments regarding the extreme weather events commonly seen in Taiwan and to establish emergency response measures to prevent future operational disruptions that could lead to the loss of financial resources, market share, and skilled personnel.
The implementation summary of "Climate Change: An Initial Risk Assessment" is attached (Simplified Chinese version): risk-project-report-executive-summary—cn
Sources: Chinadialogue (2015-07-13) (Compiled by PIDC) Attachment file:risk-project-report-executive-summary—cn.pdf
