The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its World Energy Outlook 2020 report on the 13th. The 464-page outlook notes that the turmoil caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will create a high degree of uncertainty in global energy use over the next 20 years. The outlook offers four scenarios, all of which show significant growth in renewable energy. This year's report offers four possible pathways, or scenarios, forecasting growth through 2040. All four scenarios show significant growth in renewable energy. In the IEA's most likely scenario, solar energy production will increase by 43% by 2040 compared to 2018 projections, partly due to solar prices being 20 to 50% cheaper than expected. The IEA notes that despite accelerating renewable energy growth and the structural decline of coal, it is premature to declare global oil use has peaked unless stronger climate action is taken. Similarly, natural gas demand could grow by 30% by 2040 unless policies to address global warming accelerate. This indicates that while global carbon dioxide emissions have peaked, they are still far from the rapid decline required to stabilize the climate. The IEA states that achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 will require a massive effort across all sectors of the global economy, not just the power sector. The report's primary approach remains the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which assumes governments meet their pledges. However, the IEA provides its own assessment of whether governments are on track to achieve their targets. The report also uses the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) to explain how government commitments need to be strengthened to achieve greater sustainability. This year's report, for the first time, includes detailed simulations of the "Net Zero by 2050 Scenario" (NZE2050), which envisions a scenario where carbon dioxide emissions are 45% below 2010 levels by 2030, reaching net zero by 2050, and having a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C. It also explains what is needed to achieve this scenario. Finally, the Delayed Recovery Scenario (DRS) examines what happens if the COVID-19 pandemic persists, the global economy takes a longer time to recover, and GDP and energy demand growth decline sharply. In all scenarios, renewable energy accounts for the largest share of demand growth. Conversely, as global climate policy becomes more aggressive, fossil fuel growth weakens or even declines. Net zero carbon emissions won't be reached until 2070 under the Sustainable Development Scenario. Under the SDS, by 2040, while oil and natural gas will remain the first and second largest energy sources, all fossil fuel use will decline. Relative to 2019 levels, coal will decline by two-thirds, oil by one-third, and natural gas by 12%. Meanwhile, other renewable energy sources (primarily wind and solar) will surge to third place, increasing nearly sevenfold (+662%) over the next 20 years. In the SDS, smaller, but still substantial, growth in hydropower (+55%), nuclear power (+55%), and biomass (+24%) is seen. By 2040, low-carbon energy will account for 44% of the global energy mix, up from 19% in 2019. According to the IEA, coal will fall to 10%, the lowest level since the Industrial Revolution. Despite this, it will take until 2070 for the world to reach net-zero carbon dioxide emissions. Source: Environmental Information Center Foreign News
