The Global Carbon Project released its "2022 Global Carbon Budget" report on the 11th, showing no signs of abating global carbon dioxide emissions. The report states that if current emissions continue, there is a 50% chance that global average temperatures will rise by more than 1.5°C within nine years.
Scientists predict that the Earth is likely to warm by more than 1.5°C by 2040, reaching an irreversible climate threshold. 1.5°C is also the target set by the United Nations Paris Agreement. Countries around the world are working to strengthen their carbon reduction commitments at the United Nations Climate Conference (COP27) held in Egypt this week.
What is the Global Carbon Project? What are its latest forecasts for 2022?
How much carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere by humans, and how much is offset by carbon sinks on land and in the ocean? Calculating the difference between the two reveals Earth's carbon budget. If we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C, we have very little left to "cut back" on our carbon emissions. Much like a financial budget, a "carbon budget" indicates how much a country can afford to spend over a period of time—only in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, not dollars.
The Global Carbon Budget Report predicts that carbon emissions will remain high in 2022, with anthropogenic emissions reaching 40.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide, slightly higher than the 40.2 billion tons in 2021, but slightly lower than the 40.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide in 2019.
The Global Carbon Budget has been updated annually since 2006. This year (2022) is the 17th report, based on the latest data collected as of the end of last month. A total of 105 scientists participated in the report and it was published in the international journal Earth System Science Data.
Key findings of the report: Peak carbon dioxide emissions have not yet been reached
Looking at the growth trend, carbon emissions are estimated to increase by 1% in 2022, compared to an average annual growth of only 0.5% over the past decade (2012-2021). This represents the first upward trend since the peak of 3% growth in 2000. Pep Canadell, CEO of the Global Carbon Project and Chief Scientist at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Institute (CSIRO), expressed a pessimistic view. While the growth rate has slowed from 3% to 1%, it is clear that "peak emissions have not yet been seen."
"Emissions fell in 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19, but rebounded significantly in 2021, and rose by 1% in 2022, and are likely to continue to rise thereafter," Canadel said.
Other findings of the report include that CO2 emissions from deforestation are estimated at 6.7 billion tonnes per year and remained at this high level between 2012 and 2021. Break-even channels could offset 3.3 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions through reforestation and harvesting of high-quality forest products (HWP).
Furthermore, atmospheric CO2 concentrations reached 417.2 ppm in 2022, a 51% increase from pre-industrial levels. In the decade from 2012 to 2021, fossil fuel CO2 emissions declined in 24 countries despite continued economic growth.
Source: Environmental Information Center (https://e-info.org.tw/node/235434)
