A World-End Prediction: IPCC Special Report: Humanity Faces a Warmer, More Acidic, Less Oxygenated, Less Fishy, and Higher Sea Levels. The world's most authoritative climate science community released a special report on the 25th, titled "The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate." Scientists warn that in the worst-case scenario, sea levels will rise by one meter by the end of this century, and 80% of smaller glaciers worldwide will disappear into the sea, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events such as strong typhoons. Scholars remind us that facing the impact of the climate crisis on human habitation, we can no longer rely on traditional engineering methods; how people "adapt" and improve "resilience" requires education to adjust to new ways of thinking. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate gathers a wealth of scientific evidence to explore how climate change affects marine, coastal, polar, and mountain ecosystems, and how to strengthen the "resilience" of natural ecosystems and human societies to cope with the risks brought by climate change. Delta Electronics Education Foundation held a media salon today (26th), inviting experts to analyze the significance of this report. The IPCC reports have always been the authoritative source of information on climate change and the foundation for the international community's understanding of climate change and related issues. The IPCC held its 51st meeting in Monaco from October 20th to 23rd and released the "SROCC Special Report" on October 25th. Zhang Yanggan, CEO of the foundation, stated that the SROCC report covers all hydrological aspects, including the relationship between the ocean water cycle, ocean heat waves, and the disintegration of marine ecosystems. It provides a comprehensive overview of the related issues observed by scientists in the ocean, hydrology, and polar regions, and is also the first IPCC report to emphasize "education" as one of the solutions. Key Facts About the Ocean Under Climate Change: According to an IPCC press release, the global ocean is currently "warmer, more acidic, and less productive. Melting glaciers and ice sheets are causing sea levels to rise, and extreme events along coastlines are becoming increasingly severe." Several notable facts include: Sea levels are expected to rise by 1 meter by the end of the century; 80% of smaller glaciers worldwide will disappear into the sea by the end of the century. Frequent marine heat waves: "Daily sea surface temperatures exceeding those of 99% of the area between 1982 and 2016," known as marine heat waves, are doubling in frequency and becoming more persistent, intense, and widespread. Coastal wetland loss: 20-90% will be lost by 2100. Decreasing ocean oxygen levels: The oxygen levels at depths of 100-600 meters are projected to decrease by 59-80% by 2031-2050. Changes in ocean physical and chemical composition: By the end of this century, the cumulative heat absorbed by the ocean since 1970 is projected to be 5-7 times greater. Compared to 1986–2005 levels, the annual average density stratification at the top 200 meters will increase by 12–30% by the end of this century, hindering the vertical flow of nutrients, carbon, and oxygen. Ocean surface pH will decrease by approximately 0.3 pH values by 2081–2100 compared to 2006–2015 levels. The probability of typhoons becoming strong typhoons is increasing: climate change is increasing the polar migration of the strongest tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic, and is also related to the forced tropical expansion caused by human activities. Evidence is emerging that the proportion of Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones has increased annually in recent decades. The risk of Arctic forest fires is increasing: increased wildfires, permafrost thawing, and changes in Arctic and alpine hydrology are causing both positive and negative impacts on vegetation and wildlife such as caribou and salmon. Fish and marine life populations are declining: ocean warming since the 20th century has reduced fishery potential. In many regions, fish and shellfish populations are declining due to the direct and indirect effects of global warming and biogeochemical changes. Algal blooms pose a global threat: harmful algal blooms have been expanding in range and increasing in frequency since the 1980s due to climate and non-climate factors, such as nutrient runoff from riverbanks. The observed trends in harmful algal blooms are partly due to ocean warming, ocean heat waves, decreased oxygen levels, eutrophication, and pollution. Harmful algal blooms have negatively impacted food security, tourism, local economies, and human health. Permafrost carbon release into the atmosphere will reach hundreds of billions of tons: By the end of this century, the near-surface permafrost layer (within 3-4 meters) will have decreased by 69±20%. This is expected to result in the release of tens to hundreds of billions of tons (GtC) of permafrost carbon, exacerbating climate change. Untitled: Global Warming is Essentially Ocean Warming. This report points out that ocean warming and acidification, oxygen loss, and changes in nutrient supply are already affecting the distribution and abundance of marine life in coastal areas, the open ocean, and the seabed. Changes in fish population distribution have already reduced global catches. While some areas (especially tropical oceans) will continue to see declines, others, such as the Arctic, may see increases. Communities heavily reliant on marine resources may face risks to nutrition, health, and food security. Chen Chao-lun, a researcher at the Academia Sinica's Center for Biodiversity Research, stated that 71% of the Earth's surface is ocean, and global warming is essentially ocean warming. The heat accumulated in the ocean will affect the entire ocean current system, impacting both shallow and deep currents. He cited coral reef ecosystems as an example: the IPCC SR15 report warned that if global warming exceeds 1.5°C, 70-90% of coral ecosystems will disappear, and if it exceeds 2°C, as much as 99% will disappear. Global coral reef ecosystems cover 284,300 square kilometers, accounting for only about 0.2% of the ocean area, but they are home to 100,000 known species (and approximately 8-9 million unknown species); and one billion people worldwide rely on healthy coral reef ecosystems for survival. The impact of coral ecosystem collapse on the human condition is unimaginable. The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) also issued a press release commenting on the report. John Tanzer, Global Ocean Project Manager, pointed out that the report clearly demonstrates how climate change affects ocean health, and consequently, human well-being. Whether it's coral reefs, mangroves, fish populations, or coastal habitats, climate change and human stress are rapidly destroying the natural resources upon which hundreds of millions of people worldwide depend. (Photo: Coral reefs in the waters of Deep Australia. File photo provided by Pistons coach Wang Mingxiang.) The report also notes that Arctic sea ice is decreasing and thinning every month of the year. If global warming exceeds 1.5°C, the Arctic ice-free period, occurring only in September (the month with the least ice), will be a once-in-a-century event. If global warming is 2°C, this will occur as frequently as once every three years. Permafrost, frozen for many years, is warming and thawing, with widespread permafrost thawing expected in the 21st century. Even if global warming is limited to well below 2°C, approximately 25% of near-surface (3-4 meters deep) permafrost will thaw by 2100. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase significantly, this could amount to about 70% of near-surface permafrost. Arctic and northern permafrost hold vast amounts of organic carbon, almost twice the amount in the atmosphere; their thawing could significantly increase atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Peter Winsor, director of WWF's Arctic program, points out that the report clearly shows that climate change is causing irreversible changes and uncertainties in polar regions. Sea ice is the lifeblood of polar rainforests. Many polar species depend on sea ice for survival, and their habitats are disappearing. The rapid pace of climate change also threatens livelihoods and cultures living in the Arctic. Furthermore, "This is not a local threat; the whole world depends on the polar regions for cooling." The report also assesses the impacts on high-altitude regions. Stuart Orr, head of WWF's Global Freshwater Project, pointed out that climate change is also causing irreversible impacts on the Earth's "water tower," including melting glaciers, reduced snow cover, and thawing permafrost in high mountains worldwide, leading to rising sea levels and changes in river flow. These phenomena threaten the adaptability of local communities and the survival of species from upstream to the ocean. The report found that small glaciers in places like Europe, East Africa, the tropical Andes, and Indonesia are projected to lose more than 80% of their current ice volume by 2100 under high-emission scenarios. The retreat of the high-altitude cryosphere will continue to have adverse effects on recreational activities, tourism, and cultural assets. Downstream water availability and quality are also altered, impacting many sectors such as agriculture and hydropower. The report emphasizes that measures to mitigate climate change and ecological loss must go hand in hand and be fully integrated with adaptation. Furthermore, humanity must significantly restore the ocean's inherent capacity to combat climate change. The entire human community must accelerate its efforts to ensure healthier oceans in accordance with the Paris Agreement and actively shift towards nature-based solutions. WWF, meanwhile, emphasizes that to help ecosystems adapt to climate change, we must first recognize the value of properly functioning and healthy river and freshwater systems, and then develop sound water resource policies, practices, investments, and governance. Professor Tung Ching-pin of the Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering at National Taiwan University, who was invited to interpret the report at a media salon, pointed out that from Typhoon Nari in 2001, the drought in northern Taiwan in 2002, to the flooding in Kaohsiung on August 23, 2018, and the spring drought, the chances of extreme weather events have indeed increased over the past 20 years. Facing future climate change trends, adaptive thinking and practices must keep pace. He explained that, from an adaptive perspective, we cannot endlessly use engineering methods such as widening drainage channels and raising levees to prevent flooding; rather, we must reduce the impact of flooding on people. Just like a person's health, it's not about preventing illness, but about recovering quickly after getting sick—that's the basic spirit of adaptation. Tong Qingbin explained, "This is also why resilience is important; it means I can suffer damage, I can be injured, but I can recover quickly." Therefore, "our mindset needs to change," which echoes the IPCC report's emphasis on "education" as part of the solution. He also made suggestions to the government, noting that the Ministry of Science and Technology has previously conducted assessments of the impacts of climate change on coastal areas and fisheries, establishing methodologies, but further in-depth work by various ministries is needed. The entire government should "translate past scientific foundations into policy actions." Furthermore, while relevant government agencies have done considerable work, a transparent oversight mechanism is lacking, and there's no clear disclosure. Gao Peiqin, Assistant Researcher at the Emerging Technology Media Center (SMC), also shared the international scientific community's responses and evaluations of the report at the media salon. Gao Peiqin compiled the views of climate scientists from the UK, Australia, and New Zealand, pointing out that, overall, international scientists have once again warned of the risks posed by rising sea levels, believing that rising sea levels are an irreversible fact, but their impact can be mitigated. Sea level rise poses a significant threat to human society, especially to highly vulnerable regions, and more specific adaptation strategies should be developed. He pointed out that scientists have clearly stated, "We no longer have time; we must quickly implement profound transformations on all fronts to limit warming to within 1.5-2°C." Source: Environmental Information Centre (2019/09/26)
